Situation in Honduras Heating Up *UPDATED*

Ousted President Manuel “Mel” Zelaya is currently on the border of Nicaragua-Honduras border and is planning to cross over- something the US and the Organization of American States has been urging him not to do lest it be seen as a provocation resulting in violence.

From CNN:

Behind the wheel of a sport utility vehicle, deposed Honduran President Jose Manuel Zelaya on Thursday started his journey from Managua, Nicaragua, to the country’s border with Honduras.
Honduran soldiers block the road at the Honduras-Nicaragua border in Paraiso, Honduras.

A caravan of Zelaya supporters and reporters headed north to the city of Esteli, close to the Honduran border. From there, Zelaya would finalize his plans to cross back into Honduras, he said at a news conference before departing.

The ousted president stated his intention to return to his homeland this week, raising concerns about increased unrest.

The days since the June 28 military-led coup that deposed Zelaya have been marked by mostly peaceful demonstrations by supporters and detractors of the government of interim President Roberto Micheletti.

One notable exception was an attempt by Zelaya to return by plane on July 5, only to be turned away by military vehicles blocking the airports runways. One man was killed in clashes between Zelaya supporters and police.

When asked about Zelaya’s stated return, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Crowley called it “unwise.”

“Any step that would add to the risk of violence in Honduras or in the area, we think would be unwise,” Crowley said.

Zelaya told reporters he hopes that border guards in Honduras will recognize him as president and commander in chief, and put down their weapons when he attempts to cross as early as Friday.

“We go with a white flag, with a flag of peace,” Zelaya said.

Micheletti’s government, which has vowed to arrest Zelaya on charges of violating the constitution, announced on Thursday a curfew in the border area with Nicaragua from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m., the newspaper La Prensa reported. A less restrictive curfew remained in effect in other parts of the country, the paper said.

The backdrop to the tensions following Zelaya’s caravan is a peace agreement offered Wednesday by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who mediated two rounds of unsuccessful talks between the two sides.

The document, dubbed the San Jose Accord, calls for Zelaya’s return to power, the creation of a unity government, and early elections…

While I agree with the US position that Zelaya should be reinstated as President to finish out his term (whether that term end earlier or not), I have to say, Zelaya is being a bit of an ass and if he were smart, he’d tell Hugo Chavez to keep his mouth shut because Chavez is using the crisis in Honduras for his own political advantage, not the advantage of Zelaya.

Today’s Washington Post also has coverage of this issue.

I have blogged about the unfolding situation in Honduras [focusing on Secretary Clinton's role in urging a peaceful resolution] here, here and here.

UPDATE:
Here is an interesting angle with respect to the situation in Honduras- one that you don’t usually see highlighted in the mainstream media due to the left vs. right political politicization of the issue:

Zelaya’s referendum, planned for the day the coup took place, was a nonbinding poll. It only asked voters if they wanted to have an actual referendum on reforming the country’s Constitution on the November ballot. Even if Zelaya had gotten everything he was looking for, a new president would have been elected on the same November ballot. So Zelaya would be out of office in January, no matter what steps were taken toward constitutional reform. Further, Zelaya has repeatedly said that if the Constitution were changed, he would not seek another term.

[snip]

So it’s up to Obama to do the right thing. He can have the U.S. Treasury freeze the coup leaders’ personal bank accounts and the assets of the coup leaders and their supporters, and deny them visas to the United States. He could also impose trade sanctions — 70 of Honduran exports go to the United States. He would have worldwide support for such steps: Both the Organization of American States and the U.N. General Assembly have voted unanimously to demand the immediate and unconditional reinstatement of Zelaya.

Almost all of the Latin American governments — which are mostly left of center — also sympathize with Zelaya because he is a reform president fighting against a corrupt oligarchy. In one of the poorest countries in the hemisphere, he raised the minimum wage by 60 percent and increased teachers’ salaries and public pensions, as well as access to education.

What happened in Honduras is a classic Latin American coup in another sense: Gen. Romeo Vasquez, who led it, is an alumnus of the United States’ School of the Americas (renamed the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation). The school is best known for producing Latin American officers who have committed major human rights abuses, including military coups.

The military has shot at peaceful demonstrators, killing one, according to human rights groups, and the coup government has closed TV and radio stations and arrested journalists. Two political activists have been murdered.

During the 1980s, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency trained a military death squad — the infamous Battalion 316 — that tortured and murdered hundreds of Honduran political activists. The U.S. Embassy looked the other way, and the State Department doctored its human rights reports to omit these crimes.

Obama has so far been silent about the coup government’s violence and censorship. This silence is very unfortunate and difficult to explain. The repression may worsen if — as expected — the Arias mediation efforts fail and Zelaya makes good on his vow to return to Honduras.

UPDATE: CNN reports that Manuel Zelaya briefly crossed the border but was then pushed back so at this stage, it looks like there is an unproductive stand-off taking place:

A waiting game developed on the Honduran border Friday as ousted President Jose Manuel Zelaya crossed a few yards into his country and hunkered down while he carried on extensive telephone conversations and chatted with reporters.
Supporters cheer as deposed leader Jose Manuel Zelaya crosses into Honduras on Friday.

There were reports that he later crossed a few feet back into Nicaragua while he waited, but the border’s exact location was difficult to ascertain.

The Honduran government said it would arrest Zelaya if he pushed farther into the nation. Vice Foreign Minister Marta Lorena Alvarado said the government would ask the International Red Cross to monitor the conditions under which he is held.

Lorena Alvarado also said the country’s provisional government is willing to continue negotiations with Zelaya, whom she blamed for inciting possible violence by returning to Honduras nearly a month after being removed by a military-led coup…

UPDATE II: As of Saturday July 25th, things continue to be tense at the border and there continue to be reports of violent clashes between the military and pro-Zelaya protesters:

In Washington, the State Department issued a travel alert for Honduras and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton criticized Zelaya’s actions.

“We have consistently urged all parties to avoid any provocative action that could lead to violence,” Clinton said. “President Zelaya’s effort to reach the border is reckless. It does not contribute to the broader efforts to restore democratic and constitutional order in the Honduras crisis.”

The State Department warning “alerts American citizens to the current unstable political and security situation in Honduras, and recommends that American citizens defer all non-essential travel to Honduras until further notice.”

While the drama unfolded at the border, Micheletti supporters held a large and colorful rally in San Pedro Sula.

Zelaya supporters amassed in the Honduran city of El Paraiso, about 12 kilometers (7 miles) from the border with Nicaragua. They were met by about 1,500 police and soldiers, some of whom fired on the crowd, a correspondent for CNN en Español reported from the scene.

Two people were wounded, journalist Jorge Jimenez said.

The police and soldiers fired tear gas at the demonstrators for about 15 to 20 minutes before letting off a barrage of 15 to 20 shots, Jimenez said.