It’s a Nail-Biter…

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives at the morning session of United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen December 18, 2009. World leaders worked through the early hours to try and beat a Friday deadline for a deal on cutting emissions and helping poor countries cope with the costly impact of global warming. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins

President Obama arrived in Copenhagen today and there has certainly been a lot of drama as talks have intermittently stalled then lurched forward. The arrival of Secretary of State Clinton seemed to energize the climate talks and she’s getting major kudos for her role there, and rightly so.

However, nothing is set in stone yet, let alone paper:

The general consensus was that a deal was hopeless, but as the day stretched on and talks resumed, the folks in the seats next to me started to admit that an agreement may once again be in the forecast. (I refrained from bringing up the wait-and-see attitude I’ve been promoting all week.)

[snip]

The key sticking point, de momento: verification. Or as Secretary Clinton re-branded it, transparency. The United States insists tools are needed to ensure other countries are living up to the their commitments (looking at you, China), and China … er, the other countries … don’t want prying eyes on their turf.

This is a significant difference between the two gorillas at Copenhagen, but even so, we’ve heard things are moving.

In one unusually candid moment during the secretary of state’s press availability, we learned that U.S. negotiators are debating individual words — words like “should” and “shall” — which will outline our responsibilities under any political (and, eventually, legal) agreement. In most instances, the world wants a “shall” and the United States wants a “should.”

Debate ensues. And the debate will almost certainly continue until the last available minute.

One semi-related note: I’ve been trying to avoid overplaying the United States versus China flavor. This conference isn’t about creating divisions, and the language the two countries are using is usually diplomatic.

Even so, it’s hard to ignore the “we’ve arrived” power of the China delegation as the nation’s members storm around the Bella Center, chased by a mob of cameras. It’s a bit eye-opening to see that sort of braggadocio coming from a country other than the United States, and at least in climate circles, it’s clear the world is becoming multilateral again.

Soon, we’ll finally learn how this story ends … or, if you’re a cartoonist who likes to take the long view, how this story begins.

Most people I’ve spoken with agree that something will be signed, and I’m sure every leader who gambled on coming here will herald whatever it is as an “important step,” a “remarkable milestone” and a “defining moment.”[emphasis added]

That portion I highlighted is kind of interesting. By trying to insert “should” instead of “shall” it kind of sounds like the U.S. is looking for a loophole for itself or others (China?). That doesn’t seem to make much sense. At this late stage of the game it’s time for legally-binding requirements- we’ve learned after 8 years of Bush that voluntary compliance doesn’t work.

Still4Hill pointed me to this very positive article from Oxfam:

Washington, DC — Oxfam America President Raymond C. Offenheiser made the following statement in reaction to today’s announcement by Secretary Hillary Clinton that the US is prepared to work with other developed countries to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020 to address the climate change needs of developing countries:

“Secretary Clinton’s announcement could be one of the missing keys that unlock the international negotiations in Copenhagen. Her recognition that substantial resources are needed to help developing countries weather the negative impacts of climate change could truly move us closer to a fair and adequate global deal on climate change.

“Around the world, millions of people are facing the fact that the impacts of climate change are here to stay and due to get worse before they get better, no matter how quickly we cut emissions. From Benin to Bangladesh, the poorest people are hit first and worst by climate change, but are least responsible for causing it.

“This welcome development was bolstered by Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s impressive bipartisan congressional delegation to Copenhagen, which demonstrated that the Administration’s proposals have strong support in the US Congress.

“To ensure a strong path forward, we hope President Obama will build on Secretary Clinton’s announcement and the demonstrated Congressional support and firm up the US commitment to meet this goal with public funding that is new and additional to current development assistance. Hard-hit communities around the world must not face a trade-off between health clinics and early warning systems for disasters.”

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